One reason it might be this way is because it's in a complex correction and possibly undergoing Intermediate (2) already, particularly if we're in the bearish leading diagonal I discussed on the 29th and this is a P[3] whose target is "only" a shade under 600.
If this is the case, then we are either in Minute [y] of Minor 2 (of a "superbear" Prechterian P[3]) or Minor Y of Intermediate (2) of my little LD bear P[3] (which is still pretty superbearish, but allows for more time extending, pretending, and making desperate attempts at saving stuff).
The move up since November 28, manifested by the lime-green overlaid line, is weaker in thrust and in technicals than the move from October 4-12 (manifested by the black line). Notice in particular the lower slope and weaker RSI. If that move is [a] of W (or 2 - the "1292 is the top" count hasn't technically been invalidated yet, though it is on thin ice), then it follows that this is probably [a] of Y.
In my opinion, the line in the sand for the bearish case is the downward trend from the May 2 1370 high to the July 7 1356 high. This line is in the 1320s for the rest of December. I believe that, should this line be breached and a full hourly candle be made above it to the upside, this is strong indication that we are in a bull market (or at least the most absurdly mutated [C] of Cycle b (see e.g. the Nasdaq) ever).
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