12/8/11

Nothing really has changed.  I thought that the 1267 yesterday might have been the "d" wave of some sort of triangle (either for wave 4 or B).  Today's action is conducive with an overshooting "e" wave.  I actually hope this is the case, as I'm currently positioned long the market.

On the other hand, the move down has been rather powerful, and breached the triangle bottom three times with the last, EOD selloff being a solid breach.  And early futures do not look like there is much relief.

If this is E of 4/B of C/Y/(A of Y) of 2, there is little room to keep going down - the market must go back up TOMORROW.  The alternatives are as follows:

• The primary, short-term bullish alternate:  My A-B-C of the triangle are in fact the A-wave of a flat (which probably makes up B of Y), with the B-wave being my D-wave and the C-wave being my E-wave.  Note that we CAN count 9 waves up from 1158.67, which is conducive with this being an A-wave.

• The superbullish alternate:  Same as above, but instead of being B of Y of 2, it is a wave 2 correction of a bull-market impulse (probably 2 of 3 up).

• The bearish alternate:  Wave C/Y and thus 2 is already over and I will look incredibly stupid come the start of next week for having been long.

  It should, I think, be pointed out that a Y=0.618*W (or C=0.618*A) move from 1158.67 puts us at 1293.32... just a tiny bit over 1292.66.  I would be highly amused if it were to work out that way.