The count is STILL Minor 3 down.
Why? Because it occurred to me that a while back I said something about Minor 3 perhaps acting as a fractal of Minute [iii] of 1. Minute [iii] began with a leading diagonal with very, very deep retracements. So why shouldn't Minor 3 begin with a leading diagonal with very, very deep retracements?
Sentiment is absurdly bullish everywhere now. But this multifecta of good news could very well be the "news hook" for a top. The bombshell central-bank announcement exogenous-cause-watchers are attributing the market rally to failed to force the SPX through the LD resistance line, and despite being all about the dollar, failed to even get it to the 38.2% retracement (77.76 - today's low in the dollar was 77.92). Silver? This rally - and I mean the whole thing from October - has hardly budged it; it's been rangebound for two months. So I have gone short.
The nice thing about the current situation, though, is that the invalidation point is close (1252-ish), after which it is either an absurdly deep retracement of some down move (the worst possible scenario, as I'd probably go long) or C of 2 up (or something more bullish).
I have a small hedge in... Netflix. Yes, Netflix. Why? Mostly, because it's hourly oversold but showing improving technicals. It probably doesn't have much down left in it before a sizable correction upward, unless the broader market takes a tumble, and if the broader market takes a tumble, then... um, oh right, I'm short.
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