Weekend Marketball

This weekend the market once again left us in a state of ambiguity.  Given the ridiculous number of times it has done so, I am starting to lean toward this being some sort of 4th wave.

I have eschewed wave labels on this chart in order to analyze without mashing the waves into preconceived conclusions.

For the past month, the SPX has been contained within the black channel lines.  The lower line runs through the 1121.09 August 22 low and the 1140.13 September 6 low, the impulse down to 1101 just barely tipped past it and then violently reversed, and it stopped Friday's fall in its tracks.  It crosses 1150 at approximately tomorrow's close.  So far the market has shown this line to be important, and we must treat it as such.  A sustained breach must be considered bearish the market, at least in the short term.  A breach of the lower blue line is even more bearish.

On the other hand, a breach of the green lines - which follow the move down from the 1230 and 1229 highs through the 1204.40 Sept. 8 high - is short term bullish, and suggests a move back up to at or near the top of the channel.  Notably, we have time constraints on this move for any fourth-wave counts (whether Minute [iv] or Minor 4) - Friday afternoon it crosses the 1258 line which is used as the bottom of the wave [i]/1 in several counts.

The lime-colored line is also significant.  It seems to mark end points of interim moves a lot; if this is a 4th wave channeling triangle from 1101, it has marked perfectly the top of all the "A" waves up, and and retests from the upside seem to mark the 4th waves down of the "C" waves up.

BULLISH ARGUMENTS:
- SPX has bounced off channel bottom.
- On the 30 minute chart, we do not yet have a higher high with lower MACD(13,21,8) or lower RSI(13).
- "It doesn't look like P[3]".  I don't particularly like this as an argument, though.
- Options expiration is this week.
- There was a gap down on Friday - if it's going to fill, the market must go up.
- BCUZ BURNANKEY IZ GONNA ANOWNCE QE3 ON THE 21ST DUH GUYZ BTFD (I obviously am skeptical of this as an argument).

BEARISH ARGUMENTS:
- The 55- and 233-day EMA's are below the channel line top, and the 55-day EMA is now below the 1230.71 high.
- We do not have a lower low with higher RSI on either the daily, hourly, 30-minute, or 10-minute charts.
- Futures are down in the low 1140s cash-equivalent right now, which is below where I said the channel line was.
- Unemployment still stinks worse than gym socks after a long practice on a hot day with a mean coach.
- Europe is still a mess and China is still a bubble.
- The Chicago Bears won today.  The Chicago Bulls not only are offseason but are still on lockout.  (Okay, this one was a joke, but...)