9/8/11

The market promptly ignored the dollars flying out of Bernanke's mouth; it was already below yesterday's high let alone its interim high when Bernanke gave his speech, and didn't seem overall that impressed.  Heck, the dollar ignored the dollars flying out of Bernanke's mouth, rising basically to resistance.  Part of this is due to the fact that there were not, in fact, very many dollars flying out of his mouth; part of it is also due to the potential wave count.

Elliott Waves are first and foremost a phenomenon of social mood; the stock market simply reflects them.  Social mood does not have the nice property of only being on between 9:30 a.m. and 4 p.m. on weekdays, though assuming such works surprisingly well regardless.  The point is that especially when the futures have been active, you can't ignore what's going on in the off-hours futures market.  (Weekends, of course, are even trickier.)

(Also, I realize the above image is only of 1280 size rather than 1600.  Sorry about that.)

The subwaves after where I have (ii) are horrible; I haven't bothered to put wave labels on them.  If this really is (iii) down, they're probably expanding 1-2-1-2s and until I either see a significant 2nd wave correction (from this level, say to the mid-1190s), even one that's a gap up, or a clear 3rd down at semi-large degree (not necessarily Submin iii, but Micro [3] of i would probably help to resolve this situation), I'm not biting.

The alternate count is that this is Submin b of the corrective Minuette (ii) (or Minuette (e) of [iv], if you still want that count, although it's gone on so long that by now it would probably be best to call it Minute [e] of 4).  In which case the subwaves are still horrible; there's no clear anything that pops out as a potential [B] of b.  At the very least if this is only Submin b I think we need to fill the gap from 1167.  Of course, if it's Minuette (iii), we would also fill that gap.