Tuesday, September 13, 2011

9/13/11

The market is once again making every conceivable effort to thwart all wave counts.


There is a gap up at about 1185-1186 that ideally should be filled.  Additionally, if the move up from 1136.07 to 1174.05 was an A wave, C=0.618*A puts the top at 1184ish.

On the other hand, the permabulls are out in force, crying vehement denial.  "There is no reason to be bearish; there is no reason to be short; a Greece default is priced in already; Bernanke will save the markets with POMO; the PPT won't let it fall".  Meanwhile, CNBC is actually somewhat bearish - this might suggest we're in wave 2, likely finished [b] of 2 yesterday, and are now in [c] of 2.

Even if this is the case, however, there will need to be a (ii) of [c] of 2 pullback, and I don't think the one-hour one from yesterday afternoon is going to cut it.  Additionally, if you take into account futures action last night, it is reasonable to consider the one-hour pullback from yesterday afternoon Submin ii, with Micro [1] and [2] of iii taking place overnight (what here would be Micro [2] dipped well below what would be the Submin i high), Micro [3] the 1174 high, Micro [4] the 1160 low, Micro [5] ending Submin iii the 1176 high, and Submin iv either over at 1165 or still in progress.

Nine waves up, however, portends an impulse and thus further upside; indeed, it may be that if this gap is to be filled tomorrow, the near-term action MUST be bullish.  I put my bear count on the image, but that count hangs by a thread.

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