I believe now that we are currently in (iii) of [c] of Minor 2. Wave (ii) traced out a running flat - unusual, but the count fits. Yes, I have Minute [v] of 1 truncating. It is three degrees down from P[3] if it is P[3], thus it need not "act like" P[3] - technically, only Intermediate (5) (and probably Minor 5 of (3)) must not truncate.
An alternative count is that the 1202.38 top is the top of (iii) itself rather than simply Submin i of (iii). This technically allows for a wave (v) that can be longer than wave (iii), because wave (iii) is 39.65 points and wave (i) is shorter at 37.98 points. This works well with a "double top" some have proposed; if we take the 1188.65 low as THE wave (iv) low, a 39.65 move up would yield 1228.3.
I don't think this is likely to happen; we still don't have a higher high with lower RSI on the 60-minute chart - but it could be met with a truncation. On the other hand, if we suppose C = A in terms of price, then (using logarithmic lengths) this sets a target of about 1247ish.
The upper channel parallel to the 1121-1136 lows and tangent to the 1230.71 wave [a] high crosses this 1247-48 line on Wednesday, which happens to be a Fibonacci 21 days from the 1121 bottom. It also happens to be a day on which Bernanke says stuff and/or the Fed makes announcements, but that's not particularly relevant.
Notice things I did not mention in this post until now: options expiration, what Bernanke or the Fed might actually say, QE3, Obama, the 2012 election, HFT, algorithms, the banker elite, any of the various cabals the conspiracy theorists come up with, fundamentals, news out of Europe, what China may do, etc., etc. There is a reason I did not mention any of these things.
I will be unable to trade for most of the trading day tomorrow, and may be unable to post tomorrow afternoon. I do have a GTC order to buy SDS if the market should fall below the approximate equivalent of 1160 as if it goes down that far I expect it to fall further, below 1136.
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