Friday, September 16, 2011

9/16/11

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The rally over the past four days looks simultaneously impulsive and corrective.  Which, if it is a [c] wave, makes perfect sense, as a [c] wave is both.

It seems fairly reasonable that 1136 was a low of significance.  I call it [b] of 2, some call it [d] of 4 (or (d) of [iv] of 1), some call it the end of the correction since May.


The SPX's moves today were the sort of messy slop that can only be associated with a 4th wave, very possibly Minuette (iv) itself.  Where I have the top of Minuette (iii) is just shy of a 1.618 extension of my Minuette (i) - had it hit 1222.12 it would have been a perfect extension.  The CCI peak at today's open, coupled with the fact that for the first time since this rally began we did not break the morning's highs in the afternoon, lends further credence to this morning's 1220 high being Minuette (iii).  Additionally, Subminuette iii of (iii) is a 2.618 extension of Submin i on this chart.

I'm not even going to bother counting subwaves; for the most part this rally as been largely algo-driven crap.  The Submin e of (iv) low I have here is 1210.65 (StockCharts evidently didn't deem it important enough to mention).  If wave (v) = (i) in length, the target is 1248.63... and there we go with 1248 again!  I will allow for the possibility that the market tries to soar higher than that and possibly has a last-hour skyrocketing to the point where even 1300 seems like it might be breached - but bull markets do not have 30 point up moves in an hour.  I am not banking on that.

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