If 1370 is the orthodox top, we probably still have another push up as the .786 retracements are above 1300. If 1356 is the orthodox top, we might very well be done in spite of the hyper-RSIs (or we might truncate or nearly truncate our wave 5) as the correction range is basically 1290-96.
At any rate, even if this is a bull wave, we are overbought and should consolidate.around the 200-day SMA. Notice I bring that up: It broke. If anything, this proves Minor 2 is doing its job - I wonder how many bears turned bulls just because of that.
But if this is a bull wave, I have trouble seeing it as anything other than one indicating incipient hyperinflation, and that's only bullish on paper.
Hey Mitch, You mentioned on Dan's blog yesterday that there was little chance that the move up from 1074 was all an A, with B and C to come. For us EW dullards, could you explain further? I'm still a little wigged out about the speed of this leg up.
ReplyDeleteIMO it's gone far too far to have just been an A-wave. This is largely because I don't see any reason to believe there "must" be a year-end rally, and am not entirely certain that the May 2 price top was the orthodox top.
ReplyDeleteIf July 7 was *the* top, there's no time-based reason for Minor 2 to last any longer than it already has - three months down followed by one month up.