10/25/11

The market went down today.  Hope you weren't long NFLX or AMZN.  The latter tanked after hours to under $200/share.  The latter gapped down nearly 35 percent this morning - I thought there was a plunge protection team?  Also, NFLX is down a further 1.5% after hours.

There is a cross at almost exactly 11 a.m. tomorrow at almost exactly 1220, which, if this move down from the 1245.87 intraday high is a C wave, would mark a likely bottom before we head up in wave (v).  This pivot value is also extremely close to the 61.8% retracements of the 1197-1256 move (both log and linear are at 1219.xx).  Furthermore, our intraday low is just about the 50% retracement.

The channel line is gaining approximately 6.3 points per day.  If this is wave (iv) of some sort of ending diagonal (which it would have to be now if it is wave (iv)), wave (v) if it is to top, say, Thursday, would be limited to the low 1270s which again is where the 200SMA is.  Theoretically an ED could get down all the way to ~1210 before correcting (the lowest black line), but... I think it's probably high time I set up a position.