10/21/11

The world did not end today.  The market, for some absurd reason probably involving a combination of Europe and [c] of Minor 2, went up today.

I don't see this possibility mentioned very often... that [c] of Minor 2 is tracing out a bizarre ending triangle following a [b]-wave flat.

There are probably a million reasons why this diagonal should be impossible, particularly under Prechterian rules.  Meh.  Whatever the case, I believe we are probably now in [c] of Minor 2, which is either just about to end or has just started.  Minute [a] could still be underway, but I doubt it.

What this count would mean if it were true is a move to the 1240s - possibly a gap up - followed by a trip down to 120x in the early part of the week, followed by a wave (v) up.  Wave (iii) is already slightly longer than wave (i) - by literally 0.07 points - so wave (v) is free to be longer, probably reaching at least into the 1260s.  If we do get a push to 1240 followed by a retracement to sub-1210, I'll probably be going long with a stop at 1197.  (A substantial breach of 1197, and especially of 1190, is bearish and suggests either that Minor 2 is over or that a deeper [b] wave is underway.)

Minor 3, ideally, should not begin with a gap down.  Yes, it will be a powerful bear wave.  But gaps like to fill, and given how high Minor 2 could climb, that says a lot about Intermediate (2).  Of course, it's entirely possible the gap might not fill.  That small one in the low 1150s sure doesn't seem to want to.

Whatever the case, this uptrend is not over until and unless 1197.34 is breached.