Wednesday, October 19, 2011

10/19/11

The market has decided to place itself in a perfect state of ambiguity.  So for the time being let's eschew wave degrees and look at the few keynote waves:


Wave *0 is the 1074 bottom, whatever that is (Minor 1 of a bearish move, Minute [b/x] of 2, or the end of a large-degree correction in a bull move).  Wave *1 is the first five up from there, with wave *2 being the substantial retracement.  Waves *3, *5, *7, and *9 are tops and *4, *6, *8, and [in progress] their subsequent bottoms.


A lot, I think, hinges on whether wave *7 is a "three" or a "five".  If it's a "five," then it probably isn't Minuette (b) of [b].  The SPX having stopped at just about the .618 retracement of its 1191-1233 move gives a green light to the possibility that in fact Minute [b] may be over already; if it's still a bull wave we could already have reached (ii) of [c] and if so, we should see strong third wave action that will likely propel us most of if not all the way to the last top that will be seen for a while, probably with a gap up tomorrow that Minor 3 will fill. 

Further substantiating this is that the DJIA stopped within a couple points (Dow points) of its 50% retracement, and the RUT bottomed within a fraction of its 61.8% retracement.  Futures are green, but futures tend not to mean much until Asia opens, which at the time of this post it hasn't yet.

On the other hand, today's action could have just been Micro waves [2] and [3] down of Submin i/a of Minuette (a) of [b].  Or of an impulse down - we cannot yet rule out the possibility of the ENTIRE correction being over.

For what it's worth, I still don't see why everyone thinks Minute [b] "must" be limited to ~1170 or it would "damage the rally feeling" or whatever.  If anything, this seems as much if any a good reason for a deep correction, at least to fill the 1150 gap.  On the other hand, the action doesn't seem favorable for that to happen.

Tl;dr the market could go up tomorrow or it could go down.

No comments:

Post a Comment