Friday, August 12, 2011

8/12/11

By the standards of the past few days, the market is effectively unchanged.  Remember way back when 1% was a significant move?


What I had labeled on yesterday's chart as Subminuette vii of (c) could not have been a third wave, as it was shorter than waves v and ix.  Today's essentially sideways motion clarifies this somewhat, as it affords the probability of waves iii, iv, v, and vi actually being Micro [1], [2], [3], [4] of an expanding Subminuette iii, whose wave [5] expanded.

The listless motion today speaks volumes to today being a fourth wave - and a fourth wave within a fourth wave, at that (specifically, iv of (c) of [iv]).  Counting the mini-waves of a fourth wave is a brutal task at the best of times, and considering this is most likely Grand Supercycle [IV]... oh boy.  Five-minute MACD is near zero, which is very unhelpful.

Given this I would expect another sideways day on Monday, this time closing slightly down.  The wave count is technically not invalidated to the downside until 1141.98, though I'd exercise caution near 1156.39.  On the upside, a breach of the trendline running through the 1188.64 open and the 1189.04 high suggests Subminuette v is underway, and it may be time to get out of longs and into shorts.  Invalidation by my wavecount is 1295.92, but several other wavecounts have invalidation points at ~1257.

My count would call for a truncation if [v]=[i] in length, but likely targets for [v] are in the 1025-1070 range (union of various lines from, in some cases, as far back as 1996).

KRAP was up 26.25 to close at 1555.34.  Everything but CROX was up; LULU was up 8 percent.

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