8/11/11

DISCLOSURE:  I made a trade today.  I now have approximately half my position in SDS, the ultra-short S&P ETF.  The cost at execution was 24.27/share; my break-even-after-sell price is 24.43/share.  I acquired half the position today as a hedge against Minuette (c) and thus Minute [iv] already being over. If this is not the case, the targets for the SPX's Minute [iv] high are ~1215 and ~1250, and I will increase my position in SDS there.

The downward push has violated Intermediate (B) to such a significant extent that it is virtually impossible to consider this a leading diagonal.  As a result, I am 99% confident this is an impulse wave downward, one in which we have yet to have our wave [v].

Let's just go ahead and call 1101.54 the Minute [iii] low, since we made a higher low, both it and the reversal upward got a bit too big for their Bollinger britches, and there was significant divergence.  The intraday mega-swing, which the conspiracists predictably attributed to manipulation from whoever they think is manipulating the market, is clearly potent enough to be Minuette (a), followed by a clear 3 waves down for (b).  Having breached 1172.53 in the late hours of trading, it is safe to say Minuette (c) is underway.  What is unclear, however, is whether it has finished.

Minuette (a)=(c) is still at 1191.75, which we did get reasonably close to.  The point is that we now have satisfied the minimum for (c) and that we have consolidated for a few days now which is long enough to allow Minute [v] to start.  (This is why I disliked the notion of Minute [iv] having finished at the close on Aug. 9 - bear markets move fast, but not that fast!)

KRAP was up 64.79, closing at 1529.10.  All five components were up.  It, too, looks like it's forming wave C up.