7/28/11

There will be no post tomorrow.  If there is, it will come late.

On Daneric's Elliott Waves, a poster (Thomas LaCour) commented that he used Fibonacci-number-based moving averages (i.e. 55- and 233-period rather than 50- and 200-period), and Bollinger bands of 21 rather than 20.  This seems to be a more phi-friendly way to use these, and I have adopted this strategy at least for this post.  In addition, I set the MACD divergence parameters at 13/21/8 rather than the conventional 12/26/9.

Yesterday's bull count (we are in Minuette (ii) of Minute [iii/v] up) is all but dead; it is still technically valid (and we have a clear eleven waves down which is three), but it has violated the .886 retracement level on both arithmetic and logarithmic scales.  The market must make a distinct and significant upward move tomorrow.  This count could very well be invalidated on the overnight futures market; 1295.92 cannot be breached.

As for the Keller Ridiculous Adoration Portfolio... Well, it was up today.  By a rather considerable amount.  47.51 points, to be exact - just shy of three percent - to close at 1639.05, a new all-time high.  This increase was largely attributable to CROX, which behaved like a penny stock and was up 15.6% ostensibly on earnings.  That huge gap, of course, is probably begging to be filled.

For good measure, my large scale, one-year count is as follows:

I cannot accept the 3-wave rally to the May 2 high to be the top of even a P[B] (let alone a P[2]).  Note that these may in fact be one degree higher (e.g. my Intermediate (B) may be Primary [B] of Cycle b, and so forth), but I doubt it.