Wednesday, January 18, 2012

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The market went up today.

Unfortunately this market seems to be relentless in its uptrend.  It is rapidly approaching the trendline from May, which currently rests at about 1322ish and which I believe represents the last line of resistance for the Minor 2 count.

On the other hand, there's always the possibility that this is actually Intermediate (B) of Primary [2], which has become an increasingly compelling count to my mind.  One advantage of Intermediate (B) is that it actually would allow the SPX to breach 1370 (for, say, C=A at 1375) without invalidating the count.  Bears who had capitulated and turned bullish would then be re-P3'd in Intermediate (C) down - the difference, of course, is that instead of being followed by Minor 4 and 5, it would be followed by a bull move.  This would be P[3] of ending diagonal Cycle V, and would unfold in three waves.

There has been some discussion on the NDX.  I personally think the NDX and Nasdaq Composite are on a different count than the SPX.  In particular, to me it seems more appropriate to think of them as being in Primary [C] of Cycle b.  Whether or not they're finished with that, I do not know.  At any rate, the NDX looks quite weak on weekly RSI and is just about poised to make a higher high on lower monthly RSI.

P.S.:  The underlying text is in fact present underneath the black bars of doom.

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