1288.50 did not break, and therefore my count remains. Additionally, we have lower 30- and 60-minute RSI and MACD than earlier in this seasonal rally despite the shell-shocker of an opening, suggesting it may be just about to peter out.
One argument against the immediate bearish case is that what would be the fifth wave on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now longer than what would be the third wave (which was shorter than the first), meaning this may just be Micro [3] of Submin iii instead of Submin v itself. That may or may not be the case. If it is, and the SPX confirms, the indices could make a 4-5-4-5 pattern, topping at around SPX 1301-07, which is where the 78.6% logarithmic retracement of 1370-1074 is.
On the other hand, indices need not always confirm, and there is a third option as well: Micro [5] of v on the DJIA could truncate, finishing below today's intraday high of 12,478.86 and - critically - no higher than the v=iii point of 12,468.71 (yes, just 10 DJIA points lower).
As for the new bull market scenario? Certainly, it's a possibility, but a lot of this talk has been from aggressive (perma)bulls and/or capitulating bears. My preferred bull-market scenario is that P[1] up ended in May 2011 and we are currently in Intermediate (B) of P[2] (Int. (A) was the trip to 1074). The (C) wave of this move would probably look very similar to wave 3 down in the bear counts; its bottom has the potential to be a significant bear trap.
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