Obviously, it turned out that 1292 was not the Minor 2 top after all. I have updated my "Targets for Minor 3" count to adjust for this assuming that 1296.66 is the top as I have it here.
It may not be - in particular, if the market were to hit 1301.26-43, it would be pennies away from an interesting Fibonacci confluence: 1301.26 is the log-scale .786 retracement of the move from 1370.74-1074.77, and a 3/C = 1.618*1/A move from 1301.43 would, on a log scale, put a target at 878.00, which just so happens to be the .618 retracement log-scale of the entire move from 666.70-1370.74. This would work well with a "medium term bear, long term bull, super long term bear" count in which we are in or have just finished Intermediate (B) of Primary [2] of a Cycle V ending diagonal.
However, we dropped below the channel line that had heretofore limited our retracements, and failed to get back above it. Notwithstanding the permabulls' or neo-bulls' cries that the fact that we retraced the opening's down move means we are in a New Bull Market, it looks more like a mini-wave 2 than anything else. Not to mention the fact that it stopped at just about the .618 retrace of today's down move (1289.41; 1289.34 would have been exact. The .786 is at 1292.56), and the fact that the 5-minute chart is showing bearish RSI divergence on this afternoon's up move already.
The main downside for bears is that there was a gap down, which may want to fill and would do so dangerously close to the high (above 1295.50). Still, in late July the first wave after the interim top at 1347.00 retraced to roughly 1346.99.
Perhaps it goes without saying, but you're the only person I've found calling the top of wave nine. Certainly a provocative convention...
ReplyDeleteCould you elaborate on your longer term count or point me to a post on it? I was confused by that you said above about the medium and long term.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to try to have a post up on the long-term count possibilities this weekend.
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