The path of least resistance is, of course, to assume that today's downward action was [C] of "iv" of (c) of [y] of 2. 1242.82 didn't break (creating 4/1 overlap), so this is still a perfectly logical count, and full-blown invalidation would be at 1229.51.
If this is the case, wave "iii" (39.86 pts) is slightly shorter than wave "i" (40.45 pts), meaning that wave "v" should be shorter still. The theoretical maximum would be 1248.64+39.86 = 1288.50 SPX. This is below the 1292 October 27 high - wave [y] would truncate below wave [w].
However, it is worth pointing out that the consolidation last Thursday afternoon (the 22nd) might instead actually be Submin iv itself. Consider that timing-wise, this would give a one-day wave "i", followed by a clear half-day wave "ii", followed by a wave "iii" that also lasted about a day (maybe about 7, 7 1/2 trading hours) from Wednesday lunchtime to Thursday early afternoon, followed by a half-day consolidation and then a wave "v" that lasts, again, about a day.
Additionally, such a wave "iii" subdivides well into a wave [1] up from 12:30 Wednesday to 1:00, an extended wave [3] from ~1:40 Wednesday through 10:00 Thursday (with an extended Submicro (3) from 2:30 to 3:30 Wednesday), and a wave [5] up from 10:45 Thursday to sometime between 1:30 and 2:00. Wave [2] of "v" would have been the consolidation during the 10:00 hour Friday, with wave [4] of "v" being the significant rightward move Friday afternoon.
Lastly, such a third wave would, in fact, not be the shortest wave--even if we place the wave "iii" high at Thursday morning's 1252.25, it would still be 22.74 points compared to wave v's 21.83 up from 1247.54. Placing the wave "iii" high at the higher 1255 afternoon high, of course, simply makes wave "iii" that much longer.
And it certainly does look like five down from 1269.37...
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