Tuesday, December 20, 2011

12/20/11 - Santa Claus in Town After All?

There will not be a post tomorrow.

The seven waves down from 1267 was followed by an explosive up move.


Today's action provides strong evidence in favor that this is in fact Minuette (c) of [y] of 2, or even (iii) of [c] of 2, or if you're a permabull, (iii) of [iii] of 3 of (1) of P[3] up.

I do not think the move from 1267 counts well as an impulse.  In order for it to be a "five", the span from what I have labeled Micro [3] of "e" all the way through the "f" top would have to be [4] of an extended "v", which means "c" has to be "iii" and it would be the shortest wave.

Assuming the HOD is the top of wave "i", and with 5- and 1-minute technicals weakening throughout the afternoon there is no reason to assume it can't be, we notice a peculiar parallelism to wave "i" of (a) of [y]:  "i" of (a) ran from 1158.67 to 1197.35, a 38.68-point, 3.34% rise, whereas "i" of (c) ran from 1202.37 to 1242.82, a 40.45-point, 3.36% rise.  The rises are almost exactly the same in percentage terms, which might suggest A=C on a log scale.

If this is to be the case, since wave (a) was a 9.35% rise from its 1158 low, we would expect wave (c) to be the same, which would put it the target at 1314.85, which is near that 1370-1356 trendline I keep talking about.  Minuette (a) took 8 days to reach its peak; if Minuette (c) does the same, it would place the top on the final trading day of the year.  Happy New Year, everybody!

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