11/8/11 - Are You a Bull and Don't Know It?

As I understand it, to be "bullish" means you expect the market (or whatever) to go up.  Likewise, "bearish" means you expect it to go down.  But here's the catch.  If you think the market is going to go up, you are bullish regardless of why you think it's going to go up.  If you believe it's going to go up because "the economic recovery is finally getting steam under it and the fundamentals have never looked better" etc., you are a bull.  If you believe it's going to go up because "the particular 'power that be' I rolled on my conspiracy dice today manipulates the markets and won't let it crash" etc., you are a bull.

Anyway, as for market action.

Oh my gosh, a bearish count!  Whatever will we do?!

This sideways, overlapping slop does not, I am sorry, does not count well as an impulse.  Now yes, of course you conspiracy theorists are going to shriek manipulation at me.  Others will scream 200 SMA at me, but in my opinion if it breaches to the upside, then reverses to the downside two days later, then reverses to the upside within two more weeks, the 200 SMA is effectively meaningless right now.

There is a gap at ~1285 that has yet to fill, which is just about the .886 retracement.  We are also just about at the .786 retracement right now.  Furthermore, we have a higher high on lower RSI on the 15-minute and lower scales, and possibly on the 30-minute as well.

Also, oil.  It's over $115 a barrel for Brent and approaching $100 a barrel for WTI.  That suggests headwinds for any "recovering" economy and might present a "rock and a hard place" situation for any hypothetical market makers.