Full disclosure: I didn't update the blog, but I was still watching the markets over Turkey Week. I observed what appeared to be signs of a short-term bottom, and scaled into long positions in UWM (double long RUT) over Wednesday and Friday, which I liquidated today. I believe this almost counterbalances my far-too-early November short (which I liquidated too early).
Expect a similar hiatus around Christmas time.
I will admit that I perhaps over-invoke the fifth wave extension, but it seemed to be the best-proportioned, and the waves work well. The main disadvantage is that Subminiscule [v] of 3 of (5) of [5] of "i" appears on the 30-minute chart at least to be a "three" - but there's an alternate count with the exact same implication that would call what I have labeled as Submicro (4) to simply be A of 4, with C of (4) being what I have labeled as 2 of (5), Subminiscule [i]-[iii] being Miniscule 1-3 of (5), and [iv] of 3, [v] of 3, and 4 being [a/w], [b/x], and [c/y] of 4.
On a side note, I should never have to label subminiscule degree waves on a chart that spans an entire month.
I am pretty sure the correction is not over. It is sharp, which we expect from a wave "ii", but a move that takes place almost entirely as a gap up to correct an impulse that lasted 9 1/2 trading days? While yes, it did almost make it to the 38.2% retracement, if this is a wave 2 - even if it is a wave "ii" of (iii) - probably should at least try a little harder. We didn't even make 30-minute overbought with the gap up. Therefore I think the gap up was only wave [A] of "ii".
If 1184.15 was [B] (rather than (A) of [B] or something of that ilk), a few good stopping points for [C] are a little higher up. [C]=0.618*[A] at 1208.05, which is not that far away from the 50-day SMA (which I have labeled as the horizontal burgundy line). [C]=[A] at 1222.83, which is not that far away from the 61.8% retracement at approximately 1225. Also, the 200-day SMA currently is at 1266.98, the exact wave (ii) top as I have labeled it. Coincidence? ...Yes, probably.
No comments:
Post a Comment