11/2/11

Looking at just the price action of today compared to the past several days, you'd never know Bernanke made a speech today.

I hold that Minor 3 has begun and that this pullback from 1215 is Minuette (yes, Minuette, not Minute) (ii) of [i] of 3, whose targets are in my previous post.

We have a gap at 1253 (needs up to fill), yesterday's close at ~1218 (needs down to fill), and of course way back when at 1155 (needs way down to fill).  In addition, we have a right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern forming, and it seems to be doing so quite nicely.

One operative question is, of course, are we done?  The head and shoulders channel crosses through 1246, the .382 retracement is at 1244, the .500 retracement and gap fill are both at 1253, and the LS of the H&S is at 1256.  If the gap at 1253 absolutely needs to fill, then we're probably in my alternate count and we just had [A] of "z".  If it does not, then we might very well have had [2] of i of (iii).

Although, of course, a fill of the 1155 gap before the 1253 gap might actually favor the "this is Minute [b]/Minor B down" counts (1153 is a .618 correction, and C=0.618*A yields a top for C of 1287 i.e. nearly a double top).