11/20/11

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, there is a high probability that updates will be sporadic or absent this week.  (Of course, American markets will be closed Thursday anyway, but...)

I feel fairly safe that the wave I have labeled as Minuette (ii) is a complex correction, as evidenced by my inability to count the move on Nov. 10-11 as a "five" and the clarity of the Nov. 9 plummet as a "three".  The main issue with the count I posted Thursday is that Friday's action looks like a 4th wave, not a 2nd wave. 

Now, there is a possibility that Submin "ii" is tracing a flat, of which the [A] and part of the [B] wave have finished.  On the other hand, RSI lows at 15 and 30 minute scales were essentially colocated with the SPX price low, and we have yet to have a lower low on higher RSI - indicating that 1209.43 was a third-wave low.  Given futures action tonight, it's possible this fifth wave might manifest as a gap down with subsequent reversal up (or a "turnaround Tuesday" up).  A possible target is ~1200.87, where 5=1 in price length, which is also near the psychological support of 1200

As for where this reversal might terminate before initiating "iii" of (iii) of [i], the "triangle" baseline still is a logical resistance point.  It goes through the 1240s throughout this upcoming abridged trading week, and does not breach the 1266.98 invalidation point until December 12.