11/16/11

Another day, another 78.6% retracement followed by a - wait, did that plummet happen during market hours?

I've been pondering this count for a little while.  It's not nested 1-2-1-2, but it would explain the messy overlapping slop without creating the potential for Miniscule waves that last the better portion of a trading day.

The main problem I have with the "triangle [b] count" everyone and their dog seems to believe in is that we have been struggling to get back to the top (black) trendline where (d) should reach - that, and the move down from 1292 to 1215 looked impulsive.  If indeed we are in a triangle, it's probably a bearish one (say, Minuette (b) of [b] of 2) from the 1215 low.  In such a case, we probably bottomed out at Submin "d" of (b) and should retrace to the upper 1250s in "e".

Also, a 3-3-3-3-3 W-X-Y-X-Z might look like a triangle, without actually being one.  And those can happen in second waves.  I think we might be done, given that we had a market tank during trading hours as opposed to in the futures only.  This would mean we could gap down, and fill the gap without approaching new highs.

Regardless, I now think that 1264.25 was the top of the correction from 1226.64, not 1266.98.  Though 1266.98 is closer to a perfect Fibonacci retracement, 1264.25 is a better fit for a resistance trendline down from 1277.55.