The astute reader will notice that I have reverted to my previous count, in which 1197 was the bottom of (ii) of [c] and thus that we completed wave (v) (and by extension, Minor 2) at 1292 on Thursday. Yes, the RSI looks like there should be more upside, but it has been known to be wrong before. 10-minute and lower do show lower highs on THE price high, whereas 30-minute, 60-minute etc. may be trying to capture the [c] wave itself rather than simply (iii)/(v) of [c].
However, we have: (1) a plummet back below the 200-day SMA after only two days above it, (2) what would otherwise have to be a wave 4/1 overlap caused by a 3:58 drop below 1256.55, (3) bad European news as realization sets in that, in fact, not everything was solved, (4) bullish sentiment - even many bears believe there must be more to this rally and/or that this pullback is a [b] wave because "there must be a Santa rally", etc.
It very strongly looks like a clear 5 down now, and the lower blue line from 1292 to 1287 crosses the .618 retracement (1277) Wednesday near the open. The midpoint of the drop down is passed later Wednesday, and the .500 retracement is reached Thursday. The blue line starts to touch channel lines around Thursday afternoon, and on Friday morning touches the 1197-1221 channel at just about the 38.2% retracement of 1268.
Also, it should be pointed out that this drop is now the longest we have gone without a return to upward conditions since the October rally began, and if we go past about 10:15 tomorrow without making a high above 1292, it will be the longest we've gone without a new high since the October rally began.
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