Monday, October 10, 2011

10/10/11

The market went sideways for much of today.  Then it went down.  Then it went up.



Permabulls notwithstanding, it is pretty clear that we are now in a countertrend correction upward at large degree, which I will call Minor 2.  It could be Intermediate (2), particularly if this is in fact not the superbear Primary [3] but the less bearish Primary [C] or [Y].  (Also, the "2008 = 2011" would imply that we have entered Int. (2).)  If this is Intermediate (2), everything on the chart is probably a degree higher. 

The wave count suggests we are in the latter stages of Minute [a] of 2.  The wave form is complete, which could allow for a correction starting any time, including tonight in futures trading.  We do have a small gap in the mid-1150s which would be a target for the [b] wave. 

If today's high was the high, the 38.2% retracement would put us in the 1147-49 range.  A 50% retracement would put us at 1133-34.  A 61.8% retracement would put us at 1119-20, which would probably would be the lowest we get until Minor 3.  Another target for the high would be 1201.08, which would have 5 = 1.  From there, a 38.2% retracement would be 1151-52, which would neatly fill the gap.

If the market does indeed retrace to this level in [b], the targets for the [c] wave based on the length of [a] would be as follows - 1230 (C=0.618A on a log scale, just about the Aug. 31 high), 1282 (C=A, log scale), and 1369 (C=1.618A - a near-perfect double top).  Of course, there are also the 1248, 1302, and 1333 (.618, .786, .886) Fibonacci retracement levels as well.  The point is, it'll be a C wave, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it at least test if not surpass 1300.

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