Thursday, August 4, 2011

9/29/08 - excuse me, 8/4/11

Hope you weren't long Dendreon (DNDN).  If you were, well... your stop triggered.  No, I don't care what your stop was; it triggered.  (Unless it was a stop-limit, then it probably didn't.)  If you were leveraged long Dendreon, then... hope you had a nice margin call.

Anyway, the markets decided that the pathetic, miserable excuse of a crash they had been making the past several days was insufficiently crashworthy, and decided to really plummet this time.  The S&P fell 60.  The Dow, over 500.  The Nasdaq, 136.  The RUT, nearly 46.  Oil?  Brent fell to under 108, and WTI to under 87.  Silver?  Dropped $3.50 an ounce, back under $40.  Everyone's favorite shiny yellow metal, the one that goes up if Bernanke so much as utters a syllable that sounds like it could be "Q", "E", or "3"?  Yeah, even that was down today.

My pet index, like just about everything else save the dollar, VIX, and short ETFs, was down.  By 94.50 points, to be exact, closing at 1532.38, its lowest value since - well, July 14.

No EW chart today.  I am reconsidering my wave count in light of the crash - if that was Minute [iv] already, it certainly was short for a Minute [iv] compared to Minute [ii] (of course, then again, Minor 2 of (C) of [B] was much shorter than Minor 4 of (C) of [B], but...).  More than likely, Minute [iii] isn't done yet (or alternatively, it's a degree higher and this is Minor 3 not Minute [iii]).

The 2.618 length of what I have as Minute [i] (which may in fact be Minor 1) is 158.55, which would take us all the way to 1188.45, a level nearly unthinkable only a few days ago but which is now just 12 SPX points away.  If it decides to extend further, I might have to pull out the logarithmic scales.

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