8/29/11

The triangle count is broken.  Theoretically it could still be a fourth wave down of some kind, but the primary count is still Minor 2.

My target for Minor 2 is 1248.  Why?  Because it's high, and therefore is likely to get the most people on board the bull train before crashing down.  There are already bears "defecting" to the bull camp; the "P[3] up" counts are being trotted out, etc.  This is wave 2 behavior.  More importantly, though, 1248 is the point at which C = 1.618*A. 

On the other hand, one could make a decent argument that wave (iii) has already ended - Submin i finished and ii happened as a "weekend wave" and we opened already in iii of (iii); Submin v traced out an ending diagonal with Micro [3] shorter than Micro [1].  If this is the case, then two things are true about the count:  {1} Micro [5] cannot be longer than Micro [3] - it breaches at 1210.85, less than a measly point away from its current value (notably, as I type this, futures are down slightly), and {2} since (iii)=(i) at 1213.94, (iii) would have to be shorter than (i) and thus (v) shorter still.  This would not, however, invalidate a 1248 high - so long as wave (iv) doesn't retrace below 1207.04.