Thursday, August 25, 2011

8/25/11

The market just aims to confuse at every opportunity, doesn't it?


The bull count suggests that we are in Minor 2, or a Minuette (c) of [iv] (or if you prefer, Minute [c] of 4) that initially acts like a Minor 2.  We do appear to be in the "handle" stage of a cup-and-handle.  There is, however, a caveat:  It doesn't look like (c) down of [b] (for the Minor 2 count) has happened yet, which would have downside to about 1140.  A low of ~1140 also works well as a target for (d) of Daneric's Minute [iv] count.

My expectations are either that we "gap and crap" with the gap up to around 1170 forming the right shoulder of a H&S, then down to 1140, or that we open down in which case I will probably sell off the SDS that I bought today.  (Near the day's high, for once.)  The move down felt impulsive and the B (or 2) seems rather weak, and this move is definitely of the same degree as the move up from 1121.09.

The bear count, of course, is that the 1190 high today was Minuette (ii) of [v] (or if you prefer, Minute [ii] of 5).  I tried to display this in a 1-minute chart, to make better sense of this wave pattern.


It definitely seems as though many heads-and-shoulders could complete in a third-wave bearish impulse down.

At any rate, I think we probably will at least return to the 1140s.

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