I have two wave counts up. Either we finished Minuette (v) and thus Minute [iii] today, or we only finished Subminuette i of Minuette (v). If this was Minuette (v) completing, then Minute [iii] comprised 71.37 points downward compared with Minute [i]'s 60.56. While this is good - wave 3 was longer than wave 2 - the ratio is not overly close to a Fibonacci ratio (unless you consider 0.849 overly close to 0.886, but I don't).
For this reason, my preferred count is that Submin i of (v) of [iii] completed, and the rally we had since midday is Subminuette ii. This wave, though of smaller degree, can actually correct further than Minute [iv] could - Minute [iv] is limited to staying below or just slightly and briefly penetrating the Minute [i] low of 1295.92, whereas the .618 Fibonacci retracement - just the .618 retracement of Submin ii is 1294.81, with the .786 at 1300.33 and the .886 at 1303.62. In addition, the MACD indicates we've already gotten to overbought conditions short-term, which suggests the sharp retracement characteristic of wave-2s.
Of course, there is also the possibility of a leading triangle where [iv] would overlap [i], and given the triangular shape of the start of the downturn from 1347, this possibility cannot be discounted entirely. I still think 1295.92 is a level to watch, though. And certainly a pop above 1303.62 would necessitate a rethink of this wavecount.
The KRAP reached new highs - mostly on iPads and yoga, but all five components were up. It currently stands at 1653.64.
Interesting name for your blog.
ReplyDeleteWas wondering about your reasons for the move off of Oct 2007 being an ABC correction.
I am counting it as an impulsive down move.
Technically 1,2,3 looks the same as an A,B,C.
Is your economic outlook upbeat after wave C down is finished?
It is not, unfortunately. Like you, I think G.S. [III] topped in 2007, not 2000. I view G.S. [IV] (if that is what this is) as a W-X-Y triple flat correction. P[C] finishes Cycle a of Supercycle (w), and probably bottoms in 2012-2014. Cycle b will either be tepid and subdued, and Cycle c will be the 2020 demographics/"baby bust" crash touted on some sites.
ReplyDeleteMy main large-scale alternate is that P[C] is really Cycle c of Supercycle (a/w) and move everything up one degree, so my "we are in Subminuette ii of Minuette (v) of Minute [iii] (of 1 of (1) of P[C])" count becomes "we are in Minuette (ii) of Minute [v] of Minor 3 (of (1) of P[1] of Cycle c)".
As for why I prefer the A-B-C count, it's mainly to reconcile it with things like the RUT which *have* surpassed their 2007 highs. But that could also be chalked up to the Fed's extra liquidity being used by speculators (producing inflation in stocks, even if not overall, and thus allowing P[2] to approach or even exceed P[1] in length), or "All the Same Market" not applying.
I see. Not sure what you mean by triple flat.
ReplyDeleteA WXY would be the notation for a double three correction.
If Cycle a is a zigzag, composed of PA,PB,PC , then your Supercycle W is assumed to be a flat and Cycle b would have to rise back close to the start of Cycle a, the 2007 highs.
I am expecting Cycle a to be a 5-wave impulse down, completing a zigzag Super Cycle W composed of cycle a,b,c.
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ReplyDelete"Triple flat" in the sense that the X-wave, being a corrective wave, would be a "three". (I.e., you'd have a three, three, three.)
ReplyDeleteNot trying to pick on your count. I am not so sure about cycle b retracing back to 2007 highs
ReplyDeletePrechter's projection for GSC IV is also a flat, and I have the same issue with it.
And yes, RUT is indeed behaving differently than SPX & DOW. It took me several months to finally come up with this long term count.
http://ewapplied.blogspot.com/2011/05/russell-2000-may-25-2011.html